Markets are driven by numbers, but they are also shaped by feelings, and few events display that blend as clearly as the festive opening of a new Samvat. Newcomers often wonder what is muhurat trading beyond its religious meaning, is, and the answer includes its role as a barometer of mood. When muhurat trading 2026 begins on the afternoon of 8 November, analysts, brokers and everyday investors will be watching more than prices. They will be reading the temperature of confidence across the country.
Sentiment as a Market Force
Investor sentiment refers to a general behaviour. If people are more positively inclined, it makes them willing to buy stocks, hold them for longer and react to news. However, whilst fundamentals like company profits and economic data form the base for fundamental value, sentiment can cause short term price deviations.
During periods of celebration, people generally have a boost in their moods. Not only can there be a general positive vibe in the air due to families coming together, but many businesses will also have good sales over this period. This can then create a general positive feeling within markets, and people will be a little more likely to engage. It is natural for this to occur, and knowing that it can happen will help investors not to get carried away.
What We Can And Can’t Learn From This Session
Sometimes people talk about the start of Samvat as being an omen for the year. However, there really isn’t much we can learn from it. The volume will generally be lower than a typical day. Many will place symbolic orders and a large number of professionals will sit on the sidelines. Therefore, price movements might be more ceremonial.
However, there might be some small takeaways. If major indices are moving up on decent volumes, then this indicates that people are feeling comfortable with the near-term outlook. If prices are stagnant and breadth is poor then it could mean there is some subtle caution. However, this is again just based off of instinct and should be looked at alongside fundamentals such as company profits, credit growth, inflation and government policies.
The Risk Of Picking Patterns
Humans love picking patterns and there will be plenty to pick from market history. There will always be someone who can find a year in the past were the festive period finished higher and the next few months saw things perform well. However, this will ignore the years where it didn’t work. This is termed confirmation bias in behavioural finance. Confirmation bias means that you tend to look out for evidence that confirms your existing beliefs. If you’re excited about the festive period you’ll only think of the positives. To be safe, invest based on evidence you can prove and ensure your strategy works in many scenarios.
Other Things To Watch
To really get a sense of the sentiment, look to wider indicators. Domestic Mutual Fund flows, especially through systematic investment plans give a good picture of how consistently retail households are saving. New Demat accounts being opened can show how much people are engaging. Seeing activity in the primary market can give an indication of how much confidence issuers and investors have.
Volatility indicators can also be looked at. If they are low it tends to make the markets feel more chill. If they do spike it can indicate there is some nervousness. Institutional activity plus comments made by companies during earnings season can also be a factor. Whilst there isn’t just one indicator to look at, taking in all of these will give a fairer indication.
Managing Your Feelings
Whilst it’s useful to know what the crowd is doing, knowing your own feelings is more important. During the festive period people often feel more overconfident due to the happiness. Alternatively, if the session doesn’t go as well as expected it can cause unnecessary negativity. Always ask yourself are you reacting to facts?
A great habit to get into is to write your investment strategy down. This will include what your goals, time frame, risk tolerance and buying/selling criteria are. When you start to get excited or worried, refer back to your document. This is what separates experienced investors from the crowd.
Remember that sentiment tends to come in cycles. There will be times where there is a lot of optimism and this will peak before coming back down. Pessimism will follow the opposite pattern. If you stay calm and continue to invest regularly and diversify across your assets you’ll tend to be okay during these cycles.
A Healthy Approach
Use this start to Samvat 2083 to reflect. See how people are feeling and enjoy the general positivity. Perhaps make a small purchase based on good research. However, get back to the fundamentals. Save regularly, invest sensibly, keep costs low and be patient.
Try to see the festive period as an indicator of culture. It will give you a warm feeling of reassurance, rather than being an indicator of the future. If you approach it with a curious and humble mindset, it will teach you something. However, if you jump in blindly, it can deceive you. Stay curious, stick to your strategy and let the new year play out.
